Coffee futures prices lose ground on real weakness, favourable supply prospects

Yesterday, the ICE Arabica contract for May delivery closed down 1.5% at 283.15 cents. May ICE Robusta coffee fell 1.8% to end the day at $3,705. The return to negative territory was partly driven by the weakness of the Brazilian real, which fell to a 1.5-month low against the greenback, favouring profit taking. Underlying fundamentals remain favourable on the supply side, with abundant production expected in Brazil, where favourable weather conditions are conducive to the development of the new Arabica crop, despite some uncertainties

MILAN – Coffee futures have trended downward following earlier gains this week. In yesterday’s session, Tuesday 3 March 2026, both New York and London gave up some of the gains made on Monday. In the first session of the week the two terminals rose by 1.4% and 4.1% respectively, in response to the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East and its impact on shipping costs and the global supply chain, as well as the renewed risks in the Suez Canal, with Houthi forces expected to resume attacks on merchant shipping in the Red Sea.

Yesterday, the ICE Arabica contract for May delivery closed down 1.5% at 283.15 cents. May ICE Robusta coffee fell 1.8% to end the day at $3,705.

The return to negative territory was partly driven by the weakness of the Brazilian real, which fell to a 1.5-month low against the greenback, favouring profit taking.

Underlying fundamentals remain favourable on the supply side, with abundant production expected in Brazil, where favourable weather conditions are conducive to the development of the new Arabica crop, despite some uncertainties.

At the local level, the only concern is the situation in Espírito Santo, where unfavourable weather conditions in the pre-flowering and flowering periods have partially compromised the production potential of the Arabica crop, according to StoneX analysts.”

Last month, geopolitical tensions drove up the price of safe-haven assets such as precious metals and supported energy and grain prices, while uncertainties surrounding the Chinese economy and agricultural surpluses weighed on base metals and soft commodities.

Gold gained 8.9%, recording its seventh consecutive positive monthly close for the first time in over fifty years.

Silver rose by as much as 12.6%, benefiting from the decline in stocks on the COMEX futures market.”

On the coffee front, Ice Arabica and Ice Robusta (May contract) lost 10.9% and 8.3% respectively between the first and last day of trading. Cocoa prices were in free fall, losing as much as 30.7%. Sugar losses were more limited, down 2.2%. ”